Monday, January 26, 2015

Delhi Election 2015- Who: BJP or AAP

              
          The capital of our country is in full swing to elect its Chief Minister(CM). Election process is on. Analysts and media persons are trying to predict who will be the next CM.  A logical and fare analysis predicds BJP's CM.
          BJP is the ruling party at centre with Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister (PM). In the last election, Aam Admi Party(AAP) formed the government with the help of Congress. AAP did not get clear mandate, albeit its image of a party with a difference.
          For the first time in the history, a CM sat on protest against the ruling party at Centre- the Congress. Clashes betweenthe Government of India(GoI) and the Delhi Government hampered the progress. Ironically, the Congress- supported government of AAP was at fight with it on different issues. And ultimately, AAP opted for election after 49 days in power and passed a resolution to this effect in the assembly.
          Awakened Delhi voters need progress, prosperity and good governance (GG). In this 2015 election, contest is between BJP and AAP. BJP replaced Congress at Centre in 2014.  If AAP wins, again same situation of friction will come in picture. Two Governments of different parties will clash as in the past. Therefore, the progress will hamper. To avoid this, Voters have been left with only one option to vote for BJP to meet their interest.
          AAP came in life about two years ago as a platform to fight against corruption. General perception was in its favor that it would fight against corruption. Other parties were not having credit as compared to AAP. On this count, it was a party with a difference. Hence, it had a significant lead over others.
          But gradually, AAP became a party alike others. Now, it doesn't has the tag of party with a difference. Therefore, glamour of the party and attraction towards it faded rapidly.
          GG is an issue in Indian elections. The public like and love it. It is a political product in high demand. Corruption and GG are inversely proportional to each other. If one increases the other will automatically decrease.
          On GG front, PM Modi is making an all out effort to fulfil his promises which he made in election of 2014. He is trying to contain corruption, by taking different measures. He is following policy of Zero Tolerance on corruption.  As result, Modi has acquired the tag of  fighting against corruption. Now, AAP and BJP are on an equal footing on this issue. Now, AAP is not unique on this ground like past.
          Voters evaluate options and compare possibilities for their interests before making-up mood for whom to vote. Delhi-2015 election is witnessing two main issues.  The first is Development and the second is GG. The party which is able to fulfil these two together, would get the seat of CM.
          Under present circumstances, it is the BJP which is able to meet the expectations of voters on both fronts. On  the issue of GG both parties are equally good. But on the issue of Development, the BJP in centre has a lead over AAP. Voting AAP would again create frictional situation like past. Hence, development would hamper.
          GG and Development are key deciding factors of voting pattern. These two issues have the heaviest impact. Development is compelling the voters under present circumstances to vote for BJP to avoid frequent friction and clashes. Therefore, on above logical reasoning, this time Delhi will opt BJP.

Ref:
1. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/delhi-polls-bjp-dumps-modi-electioneering-model-projects-kiran-bedi-close-contest-likely-with-aap/articleshow/46003887.cms
2. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Easy-win-for-BJP-in-Delhi-predicts-poll/articleshow/45105150.cms
3. http://ibnlive.in.com/videos/523992/kejriwal-dares-bedi-is-india-ready-for-a-presidential-style-debate.html
4. http://www.hindustantimes.com/arvindkejriwalacommonmaninpolitics/aam-aadmi-party-report-card-what-kejriwal-s-govt-achieved-in-its-49-days--in-power/article1-1184165.aspx
5. http://heeralalpcs.blogspot.in/2013/12/aaps-future.html
6. http://heeralalpcs.blogspot.in/2014/01/protest-by-chief-minister.html
7. http://heeralalpcs.blogspot.in/2013/11/politics-of-change.html