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BJP is in power in Gujrat. Cong is ruling
party at center. Modi’s re-election is no loss for Cong. But its defeat in 2014
will damage Rahul Gandhi’s prospect of future PM. Modi’s wining and becoming PM
candidate to polarize voters is of great help to Cong. This guiding factor is
compelling Cong to ensure Modi’s win.
Modi’s defeat will weaken his candidature.
Modi as PM candidate is favorable to both Cong and BJP. Polarization will be
main plank for both the parties in 2014. Therefore, Cong is trying to see him
winner by diplomatic election management.
Cong is afflicted with many dieses. Among
serious are corruption and misgovernace. It can’t sail in 2014 with the good
deeds of present government. Though Cong is trying to divert public attention,
but it will not be of any help.
Bringing
FDI as reform is old style politics of imposition. This style is not workable
now. Bihar and UP’s election proved this. Public demand-driven supply will
work. Corruption reduction measure is in great demand. Here Government has not
taken any convincing measure. Cash transfer will help to some extent. But it
will be neutralized by subsidy withdrawal particularly of cooking gas.
Cong
is trying its best to establish Rahul the next PM candidate. With this in focus
and eye on 2014, Cong is chalking out its strategy. Defeat means a great damage
to Rahul’s future prospect in particular. Hence Cong is ready to leave part
(Gujrat) to achieve whole (New Delhi).
Cong
can’t ride its own work. Incumbency factors are adversely against. Only option
left out is to polarized electorate. To achieve this and weaken the opposition
BJP, Modi is helpful. In Cong, there are no aspirants for PM and hence no
dispute. One prospective candidate is already shifted to Rashtrapati Bhawan
respectably to make way to 7RCR completely clear for Rahul.
BJP has many aspirants for PM. So, dispute has cropped in for this post.
Modi is trying hard to be PM candidate from BJP. It will be premature to say
anything definitely. But among all prospective candidates, he is mass leader.
Therefore, it is expected; he will win the race. This will increase invisible
infighting in BJP and allies-Nitish may leave. And it will weaken the
opposition.
Modi’s image will help in polarizing the
voters. His candidature as PM is helping both way- wakening opposition and
polarization. A defeat of Modi in Gujrat means weakening of his PM candidature.
This will be the end of the game. Winning will serve both purposes of Cong. So,
it is trying to see his repetition.
BJP
as party has lost momentum with Nitin Gadkari’s case. Public is of opinion that
no party has will to work on public demand of corruption reduction and political
reforms. In BJP ruled states, the performances are not outstanding to sell them
as political product in national election. Hence polarization is option for BJP
too.
Under current situation, Cong is hard press to
lose Gujrat and give a walkover to Modi. Cong requires this to tilt social and
emotional situation in its favor. This is the reason Rahul is absent and not
working in Gujrat like Bihar and UP. But I doubt, this strategy will work in 2014.
Heera Lal( views are
personal and vase on different sources)
Great analysis of the situation.But I believe if polarization occurs it can never be helpful to Congress it will only help to resurrect BJP.One thing I cannot understand that we can forgive Congress so easily for 1984 riots but for modi never
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