Young India
India is a youthful nation. India’s young people are on
the move. They are reaching for new opportunities made possible. The United Nations defines youth as people
between ages 15 and 24. By this measure, there are approximately 240 million
youth in India, about 20% of the population, according to preliminary
projections from the 2011 census. That’s up from 195 million in 2001.
The median age in India is 25, meaning that half the
population is below 25 and half is above it. Compare India to Canada, whose
youth make up just 12% of its population and where the median age is almost 40.
What’s the significance of these numbers for India? They mean
that hundreds of millions of young people are or soon will be looking for jobs
and spouses. If those hopes aren’t fulfilled, aspiration may turn to
frustration. And, some social scientists say, that frustration can manifest
itself in rising crime.
Demographic change in India is opening up new economic
opportunities. As in many countries, declining infant and child mortality
helped to spark lower fertility, effectively resulting in a temporary baby
boom. As this cohort moves into working ages, India finds itself with a
potentially higher share of workers as compared with dependents. If working-age
people can be productively employed, India’s economic growth stands to
accelerate.
Theoretical and empirical literature on the effect of
demographics on labor supply, savings, and economic growth underpins this
effort to understand and forecast economic growth in India. Policy choices can
potentiate India’s realization of economic benefits stemming from demographic
change. Failure to take advantage of the opportunities inherent in demographic
change can lead to economic stagnation.
However, demography is not destiny; growth of the working-age
share of the population does not automatically lead to an acceleration of
economic growth. Demographic change may provide a boost to economic growth, but
appropriate policies are needed to allow this to happen.
Without such policies, a country may instead find itself with large numbers of
unemployed or underemployed working-age individuals. This scenario would be a
“demographic disaster”, instead of a demographic dividend, in some instances
promoting state fragility and failure, potentially with adverse political,
social, economic, and ecological spillovers to other countries.
An additional demographic fact deserves mention: there are an
estimated 11.4 million Indians living outside of India. The countries to which
Indians have emigrated in largest numbers, as of 2010, are United Arab Emirates
(2.2 million), the United States (1.7 million), Saudi Arabia (1.5 million), and
Bangladesh (1.1 million). In 2000, 57,000 Indian physicians were living
overseas.
In 2010, Indian emigrants are
estimated to be sending home remittances totaling $55 billion, the most of any
country, constituting about 4.5% of GDP. (Ratha, Mohapatra, and Silwal, 2011)
The number of Indian immigrants in the United States has grown rapidly in
recent years (there were 1.0 million in 2000). Their median age is 37, and just
over half are female. Nearly three-quarters have at least a bachelor’s degree
and nearly half work in professional occupations.
Mean personal income (in 2008 dollars) is $53,000, and median
household income is $92,000. (United States Bureau of the Census, International
Data Base (2008 midyear estimates). As political, economic, and social
conditions change over time in India and its neighbors, the number of migrants,
the skills they take to other countries, and the value of the remittances they
send may change significantly.
India’s demographic evolution over the coming decades will
provide a potential boost to its rate of economic growth – at a time when China
will be losing the demographic impetus that has helped spur its economy. But
the process is not automatic. Policy choices in the areas of governance, macroeconomic
management, trade, and human capital formation can have a significant effect on
realization of the demographic dividend.
Central to capturing the dividend is providing an economic
environment in which working-age people are productively employed. Failure in
this endeavor could result in a demographic disaster rather than a demographic
dividend.
Demographics matter to the pace and process of economic growth
and development – in India and elsewhere. While many factors influence economic
growth, few are more important and reliable than demography. India’s changing
demographics are creating a strong impulse for economic growth, and
policymakers have several options for making this potential demographic
dividend a reality.
The World Economic Forum (WEF) has released the Global
Competitiveness Report 2012–2013. India ranks 59th overall among 144 economies, down three places
from last year. Since reaching its peak at 49th in 2009, India has lost 10
places.
Once ahead of Brazil and South Africa, India now trails them by some 10 places
and lags behind China by a margin of 30 positions. India continues to be
penalized for its disappointing performance in the areas considered to be the
basic factors underpinning competitiveness. The country’s supply of transport,
ICT, and energy infrastructure remains largely insufficient and ill-adapted to
the needs of the economy (84th).
It must be noted, however, that the situation has been slowly
improving since 2006. The picture is even bleaker in the health and basic
education pillar (101st). Despite improvements across the board over the past
few years, poor public health and education standards remain a prime cause of
India’s low productivity.
Turning to the country’s institutions, discontent within the business
community remains high about the lack of reforms and the perceived inability of
the government to push them through. Indeed, public trust in politicians
(106th) has been weakening for the past three years. Once ranked a satisfactory
37th in this dimension, India now ranks 70th. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic
environment (99th) continues to be characterized by large and repeated public
deficits and the highest debt-to-GDP ratio among the BRICS. On a more positive
note, inflation returned to single-digit territory in 2011.
Despite these considerable challenges, India does possess a
number of strengths in the more advanced and complex drivers of
competitiveness. This “reversed” pattern of development is characteristic of
India. It can rely on a fairly well developed and sophisticated financial
market (21st) that can channel financial resources to good use, and it
boasts reasonably sophisticated (40th) and innovative (41th) businesses.
Today, India is facing a crisis; we are at a
critical juncture. We are facing the threat of downgrade in ratings, declining
growth, dismal job creation, acute shortage of skilled workers, high current
account deficit and fiscal deficit, total lack of new projects and decrease in
investment in infrastructure.
Young India has tremendous energy to overcome all above mentioned
problems. We are surplus of human power. Our policy makers- particularly
young political actors- need to take a serious note of it. To make these
human energies suitable for the use in different sectors, we need to orient
them as per demand. We have to skill them to make them employable and fit for
jobs and demands. Such steps can convert this energy into pubic goods.
Government of India (GoI) and State governments need to work
closely in tandem on this issue. There are many ways to achieve this
goal. One of them is skill development of youths. A mammoth pool of talent
continue to make India one of the most preferred destinations for Foreign
Direct Investment
This Budget (2013) has also almost failed to
address one of the grave problems of shortage of skilled workers, something
that even US PresidentBarack Obama has taken note of. The UPA
government has allocated a mere Rs 1,000 crore for skill development. Contrast
that with the Rs 800 crore that just one state, Gujarat, has allocated for
skill development. A comparison proves glaring
situation.
Young India is a new catch for public actors.
It is a new playing field for young political actors. Recent big protests
against corruption and rape made us to feel and assess the gravity of this
energy and discontent among masses. This new energy is in limelight which provides an opportunity to
our policy makers to use them productively in nation making.
Youth energy is like an atomic energy. We can
use it both ways. It can be changed for generating electricity or for making
destructive bombs. This is an opportunity in the hands for our policy makers.
They can enact laws for them. These laws will facilitate the conversion of
youth energy into public goods. If this will not happen, then this energy may
bring harm to the nation.
Young India is both voter and resource. Our
political actors have to see from this angle. This natural resource is the
ladder to power corridor. The political parties are always in search of
political issues. They develop political product from such social and political
situations.
The United Nations (UN) has declared 12 August
as Youth Day. In 1985, The UN celebrated the first International Year of
Youth. The Secretary- General Ban ki-moon says “To unleash the power of
young people, we need to partner with them”. Our different level governments
can use this day to launch projects, programs and to pronounce rules,
regulations for this segment to partner with them.
Political products are sold during campaign for
gaining power. This Youth India is a potent political issue to play with,
albeit safely and cautiously. Those who will be able to tame this new
segment of political landscape will rule in states and at centre.
Heera Lal (Views
are personal and based on different sources)
Ref:
3. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalCompetitivenessReport_2012-13.pdf
